After the Iowa Caucus is in the books and Trump comes in third place, I know the first thought that will come in the mind of Trump supporters is that there was some establishment corruption to allow Ted Cruz to win.
I’m going to beat the pundits to the punch on their “excellent analysis” the morning after the Iowa Caucus.
The reason Trump will come in third place in Iowa is for the following reasons:
1. Ted Cruz has a very impressive ground game in Iowa. Every county has excited volunteers that are just waiting to drive grandma to the local caucus. Rubio has a decent ground game, but he needs to show up more in Iowa. Word from several campaigns in Iowa is that Trump has little to no ground game in Iowa. He also isn’t doing “retail politics” that for some reason the people of Iowa believe they are entitled to.
2. A caucus is very different from a Primary.
In a primary you go into a voting boot, vote for your guy, and head home to watch the results. A caucus is done in churches, living rooms, etc.
The way a caucus runs is that you take a real live vote, people vote in front of their friends, and then they tally up the votes. After they have announced the results from that caucus they then have time to start picking people off to come side with their candidate. This is where the Cruz ground game will come in to play big time. Your pastor, neighbor, or friend will start to convince you on all the reasons their guy is better than your guy. Then they take another vote.
3. The biggest Trump downfall is Trump supporters.
Trump supporters have emotions, but not much else. The over the top insulting everyone that doesn’t agree with you is fine on Twitter (for some), but terrible in person. They will not get a huge net gain during the deliberation time because to the rest of the country Trump supporters are nuts. Sorry but it’s the truth. Cruz & Rubio supporters will be able to effectively communicate with Iowans to sway people to their side.
Trump supporters act like polls have never been wrong.
2012 Romney was suppose to win by 4-6 points.
2014 GOP was only going to pick up 3-5 seats, they picked up almost 10. Polls didn’t see Illinois going Republican at all.
2015 Louisiana governor was going to be a republican. It’s a democrat. Kentucky was suppose to be a democrat, it’s a republican.
Most polls are complete crap. Here is why:
Most polls are conducted by automation. Someone calls you and an automated voice tells you to press 1 for Democrat, 2 for Republican. There is no telling if these people have intentions in voting or even voting in the caucus they claim to be voting in.
Secondly, Polling companies call landlines. Who has a landline? Rural areas, and older people. Younger people are not lining up to vote for Trump, so they’re not even in the mix for polling. Cruz & Rubio supporters are younger, more tech savvy, more metropolitan and less likely to have a landline.
Third, online polls are useless. Most people vote for their candidate more than once on an online poll, and unless this is the democrats of the 1960’s that will not work for the Iowa caucus.
4. Trump is an entertainer.
It’s fun to watch Trump entertain us, but most of us do not want that for four years, or have his finger on the button.
So as the holidays wrap up and football comes to a close, Iowa will start to pay a lot more attention to what is about to happen. That is when they will start talking to their neighbors, researching on the candidates, looking into the candidates history (not a plus for Trump), and will make their final decision.
That’s why Ted Cruz will win the Iowa Caucus by 4-8 points, Marco Rubio will come in second, Trump will come in a close third, and Ben Carson will be in a distant fourth place.
It won’t be a conspiracy by the establishment to let Ted Cruz win, the establishment hates Ted Cruz more than they do Trump.
Trump, who wrote the art of the deal, just won’t be able to close the Iowa deal.
Find Matthew Rix on Twitter @TheRixReport. Starting in January The Rix Report on PatriotInsight.com